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Insight Net

Bundibugyo Virus Disease Outbreak — Democratic Republic of the Congo 2026

Epistorm Hub
Confirmed Cases
330
laboratory-confirmed
Suspected Cases
116
reported across health zones
Confirmed Deaths
49
CFR 15%
Health Zones
7
Ituri & North Kivu provinces
Importations
4
3 to Kampala · 1 to Bukavu (South Kivu)
PHEIC Declared
16 May 2026
WHO Director-General · IHR (2005)
Last updated · 31 May 2026
Overview

On 16 May 2026, following laboratory confirmation of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD), the WHO Director-General determined that the outbreak constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) under the International Health Regulations (2005). As of 31 May 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported 330 laboratory-confirmed cases, 116 suspected cases, and 49 confirmed deaths (case-fatality ratio approximately 15%) across health zones in Ituri (Bunia, Rwampara, Nyankunde, Mongbwalu) and North Kivu provinces. Four independent importations have been observed abroad: three to Kampala, Uganda (two travelers detected on 15–16 May plus one retrospective case traced to 14 May travel) and one travel-related case in Bukavu, South Kivu. The two additional Kampala cases that bring the local total to five are contacts of the traveling cases rather than independent importations.

The Epistorm center at Northeastern University, supported by the CDC CFA Insight Net program, is providing quantitative risk assessments and analytical outputs in response to this outbreak. This hub aggregates all reports and analyses produced and is updated as the situation evolves.

Reports & Analysis
Report 3
Conditional relative importation risk ranked across 197 international destinations. World choropleth and city-level analysis.
Report 2
Updated importation risk under the current expansion (Ituri, North Kivu, Kampala). Outbreak size estimated under three detected-export scenarios.
Report 1
Relative importation risk under two scenarios — Ituri Province as sole source, and the multi-province footprint spanning Ituri, North Kivu, and Kampala. Outbreak size estimated via ABC inference conditioned on two exported cases.