Epistorm · Northeastern University / CFA–CDC Insight Net
Epistorm
Insight Net

Bundibugyo Virus Disease Outbreak — Democratic Republic of the Congo 2026

Epistorm Hub
Confirmed Cases
3,360
laboratory-confirmed in DRC
Confirmed Deaths
1,487
CFR ≈ 44%
Hospitalised in Isolation
733
in ETC/treatment facilities
Health Zones
48
across 5 provinces
Uganda Confirmed Cases
20
with 2 confirmed deaths
PHEIC Declared
16 May 2026
WHO Director-General · IHR (2005)
Last updated · 27 July 2026
Overview

On 16 May 2026, following laboratory confirmation of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD), the WHO Director-General determined that the outbreak constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) under the International Health Regulations (2005). As of 27 July 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported 3,360 cumulative laboratory-confirmed cases and 1,487 cumulative deaths (case-fatality ratio approximately 44%) across 48 health zones spanning five provinces. Uganda has reported 20 laboratory-confirmed cases including 2 deaths.

The Epistorm center at Northeastern University, supported by the CDC CFA Insight Net program, is providing quantitative risk assessments and analytical outputs in response to this outbreak. This hub aggregates all reports and analyses produced and is updated as the situation evolves.

Reports & Analysis
Report 5
Care-pathway transmission model (community / HCF / ETC) with two-stage ABC calibration on cross-border importations and the 13 June 2026 confirmed-case count. Posterior R₀ and doubling time, 24 June projection in Ituri, and three isolation-rate scenarios (50 %, 75 %, 95 %) through 31 August 2026.
Report 4
Updated importation risk following the 2 June reopening of Bunia International Airport. Risk ranked across 208 international destinations beyond the immediate cross-border region.
Report 3
Conditional relative importation risk ranked across 197 international destinations. World choropleth and city-level analysis.
Report 2
Updated importation risk under the current expansion (Ituri, North Kivu, Kampala). Outbreak size estimated under three detected-export scenarios.
Report 1
Relative importation risk under two scenarios — Ituri Province as sole source, and the multi-province footprint spanning Ituri, North Kivu, and Kampala. Outbreak size estimated via ABC inference conditioned on two exported cases.